Rancho Bernardo 2010 Housing Forecast
Posted by James McNabb | Currently 3 Comments »
What is a forecast?
The dictionary definition of forecast is “to contrive, or seek to predict, or to serve as a prophesy”. Of the many things we would all like to predict with some reasonable accuracy would be the coming housing market, especially in California. Every day we get a prediction of sorts from our local newspaper, the TV, the internet and of course our friends and neighbors. For example last week at breakfast I found an article with the headline “Data on homes show upswing in three sectors”. Naturally I wanted to find out what these three sectors were. According to the article they were “Home manufacturing, (general) construction and contracts to buy”. Well that news certainly made my breakfast much more enjoyable. But later while I was taking the newspapers out and getting them ready for the boy scouts to pickup I noticed a headline from last week and it read “Slow home-price rebound seen”. That lifted my spirits even more. Then I noticed the headline for the next day. It read “Stocks fall a third day; new home sales down” and that left me a little confused. But the good new continues. The most recent headlines read “Homeowner rescue proposed” and better yet, “Skies to be bluer for local real estate”.
Reliable sources
Not that we don’t believe everything that we read in the newspaper, but there certainly are a lot of “good” headlines lately. Now let’s look into what we believe to be reliable sources of information on the coming housing market. One very good source is the recent presentation given by the California Association of Realtors (CAR) last month specifically October 7th at the California Realtors Expo at the San Jose Convention Center. A Power Point CAR 2010 Housing Presentation was given by Leslie Appleton-Young the CAR Vice President and Chief Economist. James Liptak, the President of CAR, added his insight to the coming housing market. Several highlights from these presentations were:
- The number of resales will be down slightly from 2009
- The median price will be up slightly by about 3%
- Interest rates will begin to move up
- The low end of the market will continue to attract first time home buyers and investors – this is a good thing
- Sellers at the high end will still face challenges due in part to the inability of home buyers to secure financing
- The peak of the California market came in 2006/2007 and in August of this year the median price was down almost 40% in San Diego. Check out this chart: California Median Prices
Are there still opportunities out there? You bet! The dictionary defines opportunity as “a combination of circumstances favorable for the purpose”. So the question is can we identify any favorable circumstances for the greater San Diego housing market in 2010 and beyond? Well the answer is yes and here are some examples taken from recent articles written by Steve Rodgers, the President and owner of Windermere Real Estate, as well as from recent information provided by CAR and the National Association of Realtors:
- San Diego is one of four cities that that can expect to have a better than average price gain over the next two years.
- San Diego is always ranked as one of the top ranked tourist destinations in the US.
- By any measure mortgage rates continue to be low.
- The $8,000 first time homebuyer credit has been extended until April 30th 2010 but escrow must close by July 1st.
- In addition, a new tax credit of $6,500 will be available for buyers who have lived in their home consecutively for 5 of the past 8 years.
- New housing permits are way down and that is basically good for the resale market.
And significantly, many homebuyers are now looking at home ownership as an investment in the future, not just a way to make a buck on a quick resale.
Zip 92128 vs California
Let’s take a more detailed look at Rancho Bernardo, including Carmel Mountain and Sabre Springs, and consider how it compares with the housing market in all of California as portrayed in the Median Sales Price chart shown below. The graph shows the median selling price of single family homes in zip code 92128 from 2002 until October 31 of this year and for the State of California. The blue line represents 92128 and the red line represents all of California. The data used for 92128 was obtained from the San Diego Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, i.e. the MLS. A few things are worth noting. First, for several years the price of homes in greater Rancho Bernardo increased at about the same rate as the rest of the state. But selling prices began to level off before the peak was hit in the state of California. Most significantly the prices did not fall as precipitously as they did in the rest of the state. We believe this indicates good stability in this area. And finally, note the clear beginning of a turn-around in 2009 for the 92128 zip code area. All areas and zip codes are different and therefore it is important to work with a knowledgeable Realtor familiar with an area such that he or she can give you reliable information. We look forward to a brighter year!
Related Posts: Area Statistics, Market Trends, Rancho Bernardo, San Diego, Windermere
Would You Love A Great Excuse To Dine Out? Well here it is!
Posted by Sherry Moore | Leave A Comment »
The 2nd Annual
Great AMERICAN Dine-Out!
September 20-26, 2009
Fabulous local restaurants in Oceanside, Vista, Carlsbad, Encinitas, Escondido, San Marcos, Carmel Valley, Rancho Bernardo, Del Mar, and Poway as well as many others throughout San Diego County will donate a portion of their sales for the week to support Share Our Strength®.
Go to http://strength.org click on Great American Dine Out to Find A Restaurant
Childhood Hunger is a reality for children in America. By the end of the year, more than 12 million children in America will worry about having the food they need.
The Solution and How We Can Help
Share Our Strength® is the leading national organization working to make sure that no kid grows up hungry in America. By raising funds through programs like Share Our Strength’s The Great American Dine Out, Share Our Strength weaves together a net of community food programs to catch children at risk of hunger and ensure they have nutritious food where they live, work and play.
Share Our Strength’s Great American Dine Out helps raise critical funds for organizations in communities across America. Share Our Strength grants the money raised during the Great American Dine Out to community programs across the country that provide help to children at risk of hunger in America.
At Windermere Exclusive Properties, we love helping people find their perfect home in our beautiful communities. So while out showing properties this week, let’s grab a bite to eat and help a hungry child!
Related Posts: Activities & Events, Area Information, Buyers, Cardiff, Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Community Service, Del Mar, Encinitas, Escondido, Find A Home, Health, Just for Fun, La Costa, Lifestyle, Oceanside, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Restaurants, San Diego, San Marcos, Schools, Solana Beach, homes for sale
Free Event Plus Healthy Food for you Foodies!
Posted by Adrienne Dimeno | Leave A Comment »
Earth Fair 2009′ SundayThe 19th
Balboa Park 10:00Am-5PM
Over 400 Exhibitors.
Annual EarthFair in Balboa Park is the largest free annual environmental fair in the world. EarthFair 2009 will be our 20th anniversary – the 40th anniversary of Earth Day! Each year, the EarthFair draws around 70,000 visitors.
Bring the Kids too! Lots to do.
Related Posts: "Going Green" in Real Estate, Activities & Events, Agent Services, Area Information, Buyers, Carmel Valley, Coastal Living
Investors – San Diego Homes under $400,000 – Get the Facts
Posted by Diane White | Leave A Comment »
Where can you buy homes that are under $400,000? The answer is most anywhere!
Some interesting facts:
- There are 14,045 Active Lisings in San Diego County
- 7,285 of these are under $400,000 (52%)
- 5,718 of these are short sales (41%)
Because only 20% of homes sold in the last 90 days were considered short sales, I selected homes that are either bank owned or regular sales and that are priced well. Following are just some examples of what is available in several areas…what you get for your buck:
Carmel Valley
- 1 Bedroom 1 Bath Condo 880 Sq Ft. – $249,000
- 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Townhouse 1,047 Sq Ft - $389,900
Carlsbad
- 4 Bedroom 3 Bath Townhouse 1,716 Sq Ft – $259,900
- 3 Bedroom 3 Bath Detached 1,764 Sq.Ft. – $399,900
Oceanside
- 3 Bedroom 2 Bath Townhouse 1,366 Sq.Ft. – $287,900
- 4 Bedroom 3 Bath Detached 2,002 Sq.Ft – $339,900
University City
- 1 Bedroom 1 Bath Condo 914 Sq.Ft. – $285,000
- 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Townhouse 1,117 Sq.Ft. $360,000
Tierrasanta
- 2 Bedroom 1 Bath Condo 999 Sq.Ft. – $269,900
- 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Townhouse 1,100 Sq.Ft. $355,000
Downtown
- 1 Bedroom 1 Bath Condo 869 Sq.Ft. – $219,800
- 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Condo 946 Sq.Ft. – $305,000
There are different types of investors. Some want all expenses covered by the rent, others look for areas that will appreciate the soonest and some want to buy something they will live in later or that their children can live in. Whatever your motivation is…there is something out here for you. Contact me for more information on areas that are interesting to you.
Related Posts: Area Information, Area Statistics, Carlsbad, Carmel Valley, Condos & Townhomes, Downtown, Great Real Estate Deals, Investment Properties, Real Estate News, San Diego, Uncategorized
Just Listed in Cardiff-The Cole Group
Posted by Jeff Cole | Leave A Comment »
Bank Owned, newer tri-level twin home just 4 blocks for the beach with ocean views off the upper level master suite, 2 balconies, high end finishes.
Abundant use of travertine and marble throughout, designer paint colors, 2 fireplaces, Bamboo floors in the living room, slab granite counters in the kitchen with stainless appliances.
For more information visit our website at www.JeffColeGroup.com
Related Posts: Buyers, Cardiff, Coastal Living, Condos & Townhomes, Find A Home, Homeowners
