Author Archive
Where Would You Put Your “X”?
Posted by Scott Peck | Leave A Comment »
Honor Team Monthly
Real Estate Market Briefing
July, 2009
Welcome to July & our sense of the market as full-time real estate professionals serving North County for a combined total of 34 years. We’ve created our own homemade Honor Team Predication Chart with an opportunity for you to participate with us.
OK, let’s get right to it.
We put our own “X” at the bottom of the second box. We think we’ve hit bottom, but we don’t think public perception will recognize this for several months. The North County median price has actually INCREASED for the past two months, although by only a slight amount. This is the first increase in a long time and reflects a major shift. The Doom & Gloom camp, however, says there is another wave of foreclosures as we head into Fall and that, perhaps, the magnetic poles may switch, causing a meltdown in Earth home prices. We think there will be fluctuation and fluttering, but that we are moving through the bottom and that prices will remain essentially flat.
Having said this, there are also pockets of communities that defy this logic. West Solana Beach prices are actually higher than last year. On the other hand, homes on the East side of I-5 in Solana Beach are considerably lower than last year. In fact, prices in the Lomas Santa Fe community, for example, have taken a slide this year, and there are very few sales so far (only 4 sales for the first half of the year). Even though several of these sold at lower-than-expected prices, you can’t make too much sense of only 4 sales.
Our Observations:
-
Homes prices for ALL coastal North County actually increased by a little less than 1% from a month ago. This is the second month we’ve seen this new pattern. For a fabulous overview of North County prices, click here: North County Sales Stats
-
Condo prices for ALL coastal North County remained the same.
-
In North County as a whole, there were 1451 homes for sale or in escrow as we entered this month and 444 are in escrow. That’s 31%. That’s a EXTREMELY healthy number.
-
There were 660 condos for sale in coastal North County as we entered this month and 274 of those in escrow – 42%. That’s a LOT of condos in escrow!
-
The number of overall sales in 2009 in coastal North County is about 13% lower than 2008.
-
Solana Beach has only had 25 home sales for the first half of 2009 compared to 68 total sales in 2008. Things are mighty slow in Solana Beach!
-
During the first half of 2009, 37 condos in Solana Beach sold compared to 65 sold in 2008. That’s about the same pace as last year.
-
Our sense is that most buyers are pushing into the market now at the price points below $850,000. And most homes in Solana Beach are above that price.
-
Despite the recession, we are grateful and humbled to maintain our position as “Leaders” with 12 transactions so far this year (7 sold and 5 in escrow). We had 20 last year, our best year ever. Our average sales price, however, is a lot lower than last year.
-
We are deeply in touch with both the listing side of the market and the buyer side since 58% of our business this year is listings and 42% is with buyers. This has helped us stay in fine tune with what’s really happening. To see our very appealing listings, click here: Our “Pitch Sheet“
-
One of the most excruciating challenges has been to get successful appraisals for our pending sales. The appraisers, because of so many lower sales, sometimes come in lower than the sales price!
-
What this means is that, even if a buyer steps up to the plate and offers a “good price,” the home will still not sell unless it appraises (unless it’s an all-cash buyer).
-
It is fruitless for a seller to price too high for two reasons: One, they are highly unlikely to get an offer when priced too high. Two, even if they do get an offer in the price range they want, it is unlikely to appraise!
-
However, we always get LOW offers for our listings. And we ALWAYS have to counter with a MUCH HIGHER number. We have found that the buyers who only want to buy low, then disappear. Buyers who are reasonable, then start an honest negotiating process that ends up at a just number for both parties. We stand with our sellers who are unwilling to sell at prices in the “Doom and Gloom” buyer camp.
-
When we represent buyers, of course, we make low offers, but these usually don’t work if it’s a nice property or new on the market. In some cases, our buyers are actually competing with other offers. This is another hint to us that the market is shifting through the bottom.
Our Predictions:
-
We feel we are moving through the bottom, though you can see that our “X” is straddling two positions.
-
Prices for ALL North County will continue to stabilize, but are more likely to remain flat than to increase.
-
We feel that the majority of sales activity will continue this year to be at the price point of $850,000 and below.
-
HOWEVER, there will be an increasing number of sales at homes above this price during the second half of this year.
Why Buy Now
-
Prices best in last 3 years
-
Interest rates at lowest historical level
-
Recovery kicking in
-
Good buys available at lower prices
-
Good inventory will disappear quickly when perception of “recovery” changes
-
Our buyers are thrilled because we find the right properties & negotiate for the lowest possible price.
Why Sell Now
-
Perception of “Recovery” is kicking in
-
Buyers are coming out of hiding
-
Low interest rates is encouraging buyers to act
-
Inventory of good homes for sale is moderate
-
Our listings sell at the highest possible price because of our fabulous presentation, marketing, & negotiating.
We look forward to serving you – as a seller or buyer – whenever that moment arrives in your life. In the meantime, thank you profusely for your referrals. Your friends will thank you forever for connecting us to them.
WHAT WE DO TO HELP OUR CLIENTS SUCCEED
It takes great patience to be a seller in today’s market & great patience for us as well, even though we have been labeled “marketing geniuses.” Almost 60% of our business comes from sellers so we have to be experts — and our exclusive “Top 10 Reasons to Buy Me! campaign has been extraordinarily successful. Our listings are selling, but we have lots of strategy sessions with our sellers to make this happen. Our sign“Someone Special Bought Me!” takes a lot of talent to get hoisted.
It takes great wisdom to be a buyer today too. Is the market going to drop further? Or is this the moment to buy? We help our buyers (40% of our business) to make wise choices and negotiate well. We give honest feedback on the pros and cons of each property based on our extensive market awareness, but we never push. This teamwork with our buyers brings powerful results. After showing 16 homes in one day to a couple relocating here from another state, they said, “We had the best time with you two today!” That’s the way it is for all our buyers.
OUR ADVICE TO SELLERS
-
Price your property aggressively NOW! Look at the best honest sold comps (NOT your competition that is for sale), price slightly above those comps so you are in the “Strike Zone.” Youwill sell if you do this!
-
Treasure the first offer. It’s very often the only offer. Don’t make the mistake of thinking, “Oh this was fairly easy, let’s wait for the next offer.” And wait you will!
-
Don’t give up. Patience is absolutely called for in this market. Give yourself a good 6 months to sell – and longer if you over price to begin with. If you need to sell faster, drop your price now, not later.
-
Let your home or condo “Pop & Sizzle” in buyer’s minds & hearts. Over 50% of our business comes from our listings and we truly shine in marketing. Our “Top 10 Reasons to Buy Me!” marketing campaign has been called “Genius” not only by our clients, but by our competitors!
-
Click “Why Sellers Love The Honor Team!” to see the benefits of being a seller with us. And click here for quotes from ourSatisfied Sellers.
OUR ADVICE TO BUYERS:
-
Buy now. If you are planning to stay put in your new property for the next 3-5 years and you see a property that speaks to your heart, buy now. We feel that the tide has turned and it’s important not to miss this opportunity to buy at the lowest possible prices.
-
Play it Safe. If you are planning to stay put for less than 2 years, play it safe. There’s no harm in waiting to see if the market has indeed stabilized on prices. Remember, though, when a market turns (and we feel this one has), things happen quickly and those lower prices begin to fade. But even as the market recovers, prices will probably remain stable for at least another year.
-
Work with the Honor Team. Almost 40% of our business is with buyers and we are amazing at helping buyers find the “perfect” property and negotiating the lowest possible sales price. And we don’t pressure. What you will experience with us is expertise, knowledge, wisdom, & caring beyond your highest expectations.
-
Click “Why Buyers Love The Honor Team!” to see the benefits of being a buyer with us. And click here for quotes from ourSatisfied Buyers.
To Receive this FREE Monthly Real Estate Report by Email
Just Send an Email to [email protected]
Related Posts: Area Information, Area Statistics, San Diego
Thank You Moms!
Posted by Scott Peck | Currently 2 Comments »
For all the moms whose kids are not yet old enough or wise enough to say, “Thank you Mom for loving us so well,” please know that you are deeply valued.
Although my Mom has passed on, her love continues to guide my life. That’s the power of motherhood. Every moment of your living, Moms, you are molding and guiding your kids to the highest place of possibilities. Although your gifts may seem to go unseen, they are not. You are shaping our world by your words, your example, & your love.
Related Posts: Activities & Events
Honor Team May, 2009 Real Estate e-Briefing
Posted by Scott Peck | Currently 1 Comment »
“The Tide Has Turned”
Welcome to May & our sense of the market as full-time real estate professionals serving North County for a combined total of 32 years.
Last month our headline was “The Tide seems to be s l o w l y turning.” This month our headline is “The Tide Has Turned.” Here are five reasons why we see this as true:
First, in the last 30 days, we’ve gone from having only one property in 
escrow to now having six properties in escrow simultaneously! That’s a sea change in real estate activity (a 600% increase in escrows for us in one month!) Four of these escrows are our own listings & two are our buyers. All four escrows are listings below $800,000 – showing us that the bottom of the market is opening up first (as you’d expect). Our two buyers, however, are buying properties in the $1,100,000 to $1,400,000 price range. Our number of escrows would have been 7 entering this month, but one of our buyers was not able to get loan approval.
Second, buyer psychology is being forced to shift a bit now. Until now, buyers could assume that any property they are interested in will still be 
on the market whenever the buyer is ready to act – and probably at a lower price. Well, we get calls now from agents whose buyers wish they had acted on our properties in escrow. And, in showing properties to our own buyers, some of their top picks are already in escrow. This is all good news for the struggling real estate market. However – and this is a big however – inventory has expanded and homes priced above $800,000 are very slow to sell. This, of course, is the majority of homes in Solana Beach so savvy pricing is essential to be among the coming pickup in sales. We feel the market for higher end homes will slowly follow the lower-end shift and begin opening up during May and June.
Third, and another piece of the good-news puzzle, is that banks are now rolling out lower rates up to the loan ceiling of $697,500. This will allow — and encourage — more buyers to jump in, and at the higher price ranges.
Fourth, we sense that public “perception” is shifting to an attitude that we 
have passed through the bottom and are emerging to some stability. Yes, the economy as a whole is still in trouble, but the stock market is showing more steadiness and economists are talking more and more about the “recovery” that is steadily kicking in due to the diverse stimulus package, lower interest rates, & consumer sense that we are moving towards the light.
Fifth, the numbers are getting better. In Solana Beach, there were 95 homes for sale or in escrow (versus 78 a month ago) as we entered this month and 8 are in escrow (that’s 8%). Last month, only 3 were in escrow (4%). There were 60 condos for sale in Solana Beach as we entered this month (versus 57 last month) and 7 are in escrow. That’s almost 12%. That’s healthy.
In North County as a whole, there were 1430 homes for sale or in escrow as we entered this month and 302 are in escrow. That’s 21%. That’s a very healthy number – and supports our observation that the tide has turned. There were 630 condos for sale in North County as we entered this month and 171 of those in escrow – 27%. These statistics show a thriving real estate market. And here’s a telling number. The median sales price for all homes in coastal North County was $706,500 as we entered April versus $700,250 as we entered May. So no price drop this last month. In fact, a very slight gain. Condos too stayed almost even from a month ago.
Three Valuable Links
1
“When Will Home Prices Hit Bottom, Already”
This is a very important article in the April issue of Money Magazine
Along with our 2-page analysis for North County
2
North County Sales Statistics & Our Listings
This valuable 4-page PDF shows prices from 2006-2009 up to May 3rd, 2009. It also shows our listings & perhaps your next home!
3
#1 Sales Team in Solana Beach Joins Exclusive Properties
& all 15 of their sellers come with them
The Honor Team
Redefining Real Estate
by Empowering Our Clients
with Values, Service, & Results
Beyond Their Highest Expectations!
Pictures (from top to bottom)
Scott Peck, Bob Griswold, & Cindy Wilson
Copyright (c) 2009 by Scotty Peck
Related Posts: Area Information, Area Statistics, San Diego
