Author Archive
Real Estate – Where to Scale Back & Down Size
Posted by James McNabb | Leave A Comment »
Rancho Bernardo
If you are thinking of down sizing or scaling back, the Planned Community of Rancho Bernardo, Ca. 92128 & 92127 had that in mind from the beginning. The initial plan had two communities that were for people 55 or older. All of these homes and condos were single story with a small carport. Who ever thought retirees would need two cars. But the rest of Rancho Bernardo was planned with a good mix of housing for younger people who wanted to rent or buy. Over time, an extensive Rancho Bernardo Industrial park came to pass and offers numerous employment opportunities and the commute to downtown San Diego is convenient.
A special feature in the master plan called for Community centers for the different neighborhoods right from the beginning. This plan helped to set up neighborhoods where people could gather together for activities close to home. Most of the community centers have swimming, tennis, meeting rooms, libraries, craft & hobby rooms and organized clubs. Parks, golf courses, tennis clubs, civic organizations and more volunteer activities were developed and are available to all. Patio homes became popular for people who wished to downsize as they cut back on maintenance with smaller yards and less square footage. Many custom homes were designed so people could still have their large home, but not large pieces of land to maintain. The variety of housing offers something for everyone.
This master plan has made it easy for people to select a home and when it came time to move up or downsize or scale back they could stay right in the area. The school district is the Poway Unified School District and is highly rated in the San Diego area. Whether you or moving up, down or looking for a home, Rancho Bernardo, Ca. is a great place to live!
Rancho Bernardo has it all!
Check out our website at www.themcnabbs.com
For more information call Nancy or Jim McNabb at: nancy.mcnabb@gmail,.com or call 619-871-2282.
Related Posts: San Diego
What Do Seniors Really Want?
Posted by James McNabb | Currently 1 Comment »
Just because the government thinks you are a senior at 55 doesn’t mean you really are one and you sure don’t have to live in a senior community. When I was 55 I had no interest in a such a community. After all, those places are just full of a lot of old people and I certainly wasn’t one of them. And another thing, most of us are still working when we are 55 and we have more in common with a neighbor who is also still working and understands about traffic and days off and weekends etc.
So where should we live when we are still young at heart and want all the advantages of Southern California. Quite often our choices are determined by the amount of money we have to spend on a home. The really nice thing about this part of the country is that we can all enjoy it and we can select a home that allows us to live within our means. Sure it’s not quite as inexpensive as living in the middle of Iowa or Illinois, but you can’t beat the weather. I lost track of how many times my golf game got washed out on the weekend in Illinois or Connecticut or Pennsylvania.
For the past several years we have lived in two different locations in Rancho Bernardo and one in Escondido. Each location fit our life style at the time. The move to Escondido came about because my mother came to live with us and we found the perfect home for that time period. Now we live in a senior community in Rancho Bernardo and it is absolutely terrific.
While we have homes listed in Poway and the non senior areas of Rancho Bernardo, I’d like to tell you a little about one very nice home that we have for sale in the senior community of Seven Oaks. It is not far from the Seven Oaks Senior Center and it is located on a quiet corner lot. In fact we had it checked for termites today and the inspector couldn’t find any. There are some nice pictures and other details on our website and in Realtor.com that you can check out. We think it’s priced well if you or a friend are interested.
Jim and Nancy McNabb 858-442-3658 or 619-871-2282
[email protected] www.themcnabbs.com
Related Posts: Buyers, Escondido, Foreclosure Avoidance, homes for sale, Lifestyle, New Listings, Rancho Bernardo, San Diego, Senior Living
Does San Diego Have a Hospital for Children?
Posted by James McNabb | Leave A Comment »
Rady Children’s Hospital
Existing Rose Pavilion
Did you know that more than 80 percent of our regions pediatric population depends on Rady Children’s Hospital (pictured above) including its clinic and trauma care locations each year? It’s true and let me give you some statistics that might amaze you. But before we look at the numbers it is important to consider the scope of activity at Rady Children’s Hospital. For example:
- More than 136,000 patients were treated at Rady Children’s Hospital in fiscal 2009.
- Of these over 58,000 were treated at the Rose Pavilion (Sam S. and Rose Stein Emergency Care Center) pictured above.
- In addition over 220,000 outpatients were treated which is an increase of 5.7 percent over 2008.
- There were almost 29,000 visits to the three Urgent Care Centers located in La Mesa, Escondido and University Avenue in San Diego. These centers are for situations that are not critical enough to go to an emergency room.
- Rady Children’s is the Regions designated Pediatric Trauma Center.
There are many comprehensive care specialties at the hospital and they include:
- Autism
- Cancer Care
- Dermatology
- Heart Institute
- Neurosurgery
- Orthopedics
- And many others
Listed below are the statistics for five North County communities for the fiscal year 2008. The numbers for fiscal year 2009 are typically up over 5 percent in each category but we do not yet have the final figures. The five typical communities are:
Community Number of children treated
Poway:
- 92064 4,337
Greater Rancho Bernardo:
- 92127 3,517
- 92128 3,112
Escondido:
- 92025 5,342
- 92026 4,618
- 92027 6,004
- 92029 1,621
Rancho Penasquitos:
- 92129 5,024
Scripps Ranch
-
92131 4,071
What are the future plans?
Acute Care pavilion
It is apparent that Rady Children’s Hospital is vitally important to the well being of our children all over San Diego County. So what are the future plans for the Hospital? On December 5, 2007 Rady Children’s broke ground for its new 279,000 square foot Acute Care Pavilion shown in the artists sketch above. It is scheduled to be completed in 2010. It will be located right across the street from the new Ronald McDonald House and it will be adjacent to the existing Rose Pavilion which is pictured at the beginning of this article. The Acute Care Pavilion will have 84 new surgical beds and will make Rady’s the largest children’s hospital in the state of California. Right now Children’s Hospital performs about 19,000 surgical procedures a year and some surgeries actually had to be delayed due to the limited number of surgical facilities. The new wing will add 16 surgical suites all equipped with the latest technology.
What does this all have to do with Real Estate?
Think about it. Every family that is considering a move to Sothern California will want to know about the school system and about the kind of care their children will have access to should there be an emergency. Consider for a moment that there are just over 51,000 residents in Poway and in excess of 4,300 children from Poway were treated in 2008. That is about 8.5 percent of the total population in just one year!
Often we don’t realize how fortunate our communities are to have this outstanding hospital and its associated urgent care centers and clinics. Doctors, nurses and staff are leaders in their fields nationally and internationally. The extensive scope and care given in these facilities are available to “all” children in the San Diego area. For parents and grandparents living here who have used this facility, you will find they are big fans and supporters of Rady Children’s Hospital. Children from all over San Diego and beyond are fortunate to have this icon in our “own back yard”.
In the interest of keeping this discussion short I have not listed the statistics on all the zip codes that are serviced by the Hospital. If you would like further information, please contact me and if I cannot answer your questions I will get you in touch with an appropriate staff member at Rady Children’s Hospital.
Related Posts: Area Statistics, San Diego
Where are home prices going in RB and Poway?
Posted by James McNabb | Leave A Comment »
What do the newspapers say?
For those of us who scan the newspaper and other media for housing trends, there was an interesting article on the front page of the January 3rd 2010 Union-Tribune concerning San Diego county that read “HOUSING PICTURE NOT ALL GLOOMY”. Many points were made but I especially liked one comment in particular. The article stated “…that all but a handful of neighborhoods have bounced back from their lows of 2006…and …three are less than 20 percent from their peaks – Scripps Ranch, Rancho Penasquitos and eastern Rancho Bernardo”. Earlier, in the December 30 Business Section of the San Diego Union Tribune, it stated “COUNTY HOUSING INDEX UP AGAIN”. This article was based on a press release dated December 29th by S&P/Case-Shiller concerning home price indices. Basically it stated that there have been nine months of improvement beginning in early 2009. The article goes on to point out that there are some concerns because the recent gains are relatively flat and some readers might think that home prices will take a second dip. The article goes on to say that the Fed policy we have today is stable and consistent and should prevent such a down turn. The article also reminds us that San Diego has reported six consecutive months of positive returns.
So what do these articles really tell us? One trend is quite evident when reviewing the data and that trend during the later part of 2009 has been clearly “up” for most North County areas and for most price ranges. What about some other pundits, do they all agree? Listed below are some recent headlines and statements:
- DataQuick – Southland home sales up again, drop in median price smallest in 2 years.
- San Diego Union Tribune – New home sales rise 6%.
- Leslie Appleton Young – California has hit and passed the bottom of the real estate cycle.
- San Diego Union Tribune – San Diego seen as better off than other areas.
- NAR and National Association of Home Builders – $8,000 for a first-time home buyer credit extended and $6,500 for a repeat home buyer. (Certain conditions must be met)
- Bloomberg – We are looking at (over) eight consecutive months of increases in the statewide median and we are seeing multiple offers on many homes for sale.
- And per the December 28th Business section of the San Diego Union Tribune, “Consumer spending is up over last year”.
On the cautionary side:
- Unemployment remains high at 12.5 percent.
- Foreclosures (in October) represented 41 percent of sales.
- Federal tax credits are scheduled to end in the first half of next year.
- It’s gong to be a slow recovery per Leslie Appleton Young.
- The California Association of Realtors projects fewer sales in 2010.
- The market may be swamped by a wave of foreclosures in 2010.
There are more headlines like these, but does that mean we should just keep waiting for clearer signals? Of course not. It’s actually a good time to get serious, and if buying or selling is in your future plans, it might be time to call us and evaluate the possibilities in areas that are of interest to you. Each of us will only really know if we hit the bottom after it happens and we look back and think about “….what we might have done”.
Let’s look in more detail at two of our North County local communities:
Rancho Bernardo-
The above statements are basically broad brush and each zip code and price range can be quite different. For example, take that portion of zip codes 92128 and 92127 that only include detached homes in Rancho Bernardo. At the peak of the market the median was about $625,000 in both Rancho Bernardo zip code areas in 2005. Early this year the medians were about $537,000 and $500,000 respectively which is up from a year ago in both areas. The 92127 zip includes a number of newer and more expensive areas including Santaluz, Crosby Ranch, 4S Ranch and Del Sur but these four communities are not part of our RB projections. These newer communities were all built beginning in the 2000 time period. Crosby Ranch and Del Sur didn’t actually begin selling homes until the 2005 – 2006 time frames. The last page shows the RB median sales prices for both 92128 and 92127 for the years 2000 thru 2009.
Poway-
While Poway is literally next to Rancho Bernardo, it is not part of the city of San Diego. According to a recent News Journal article the number of residents in Poway is just over 51,000 and all indications are that it will only have a very modest growth in the future. Rancho Bernardo is estimated to have about 43,000 residents and about one quarter of them are over 55 years of age. In Poway seniors make up only 11 percent of the population and it is expected that given present trends, seniors will make up about 18 percent by 2030.
Given the unique configuration of neighborhoods, we believe it would be more informative to divide Poway into two median price categories. There are a number of excellent high end property neighborhoods and there are a larger number of homes priced in a more moderate range. The chart below portrays two price categories for Poway. One of them is for detached homes up to $750,000 and the second is for homes above $750,000. The high median for the moderate homes is about $535,000 and it occurred during the 2005 time frame. The low median was about $386,000 in 2008 and it has been increasing steadily for the last half of 2009. Now it is closer to $430,000, a significant increase.
The top median for detached high end homes in Poway was about $1,125,000 in 2006. The low was about $907,000 and that has shown up in the second half of 2009. Note that the shape of the curve for high end properties appears somewhat erratic. Because there are not as many properties available for averaging, this means that it only takes a few very expensive homes to significantly impact the shape of the curve. Even considering this, it illustrates that the median price of a high end home peaked around the 2006 time period and has fallen rapidly over the past several years.
The whole story–
And finally, these are statistics and they never tell the whole story. Nothing can take the place of a property that is made ready to sell. This is especially true in high end properties. The trend in buyers today is that they don’t want to redo a house. They want the kitchen, floors, bathrooms, windows etc. to be already upgraded and if these things are not already done, then they want a real financial bargain. In the final analysis, recent selling prices in the immediate neighborhood also continue to play a very important role in establishing a selling price. Unfortunately it doesn’t matter to a buyer if the comparable property was a distressed sale or not. Buying now looks like it is about as good as it is going to get, and selling appears to be on the way back. Just contact us at [email protected] or call 858-442-3658 as we would appreciate your inputs and questions.
Related Posts: Exclusive Properties, Exclusive PropertiesSanDiego.com, homes for sale, Picture Perfect San Diego, Real Estate News, San Diego
Rancho Bernardo 2010 Housing Forecast
Posted by James McNabb | Currently 3 Comments »
What is a forecast?
The dictionary definition of forecast is “to contrive, or seek to predict, or to serve as a prophesy”. Of the many things we would all like to predict with some reasonable accuracy would be the coming housing market, especially in California. Every day we get a prediction of sorts from our local newspaper, the TV, the internet and of course our friends and neighbors. For example last week at breakfast I found an article with the headline “Data on homes show upswing in three sectors”. Naturally I wanted to find out what these three sectors were. According to the article they were “Home manufacturing, (general) construction and contracts to buy”. Well that news certainly made my breakfast much more enjoyable. But later while I was taking the newspapers out and getting them ready for the boy scouts to pickup I noticed a headline from last week and it read “Slow home-price rebound seen”. That lifted my spirits even more. Then I noticed the headline for the next day. It read “Stocks fall a third day; new home sales down” and that left me a little confused. But the good new continues. The most recent headlines read “Homeowner rescue proposed” and better yet, “Skies to be bluer for local real estate”.
Reliable sources
Not that we don’t believe everything that we read in the newspaper, but there certainly are a lot of “good” headlines lately. Now let’s look into what we believe to be reliable sources of information on the coming housing market. One very good source is the recent presentation given by the California Association of Realtors (CAR) last month specifically October 7th at the California Realtors Expo at the San Jose Convention Center. A Power Point CAR 2010 Housing Presentation was given by Leslie Appleton-Young the CAR Vice President and Chief Economist. James Liptak, the President of CAR, added his insight to the coming housing market. Several highlights from these presentations were:
- The number of resales will be down slightly from 2009
- The median price will be up slightly by about 3%
- Interest rates will begin to move up
- The low end of the market will continue to attract first time home buyers and investors – this is a good thing
- Sellers at the high end will still face challenges due in part to the inability of home buyers to secure financing
- The peak of the California market came in 2006/2007 and in August of this year the median price was down almost 40% in San Diego. Check out this chart: California Median Prices
Are there still opportunities out there? You bet! The dictionary defines opportunity as “a combination of circumstances favorable for the purpose”. So the question is can we identify any favorable circumstances for the greater San Diego housing market in 2010 and beyond? Well the answer is yes and here are some examples taken from recent articles written by Steve Rodgers, the President and owner of Exclusive Properties Real Estate, as well as from recent information provided by CAR and the National Association of Realtors:
- San Diego is one of four cities that that can expect to have a better than average price gain over the next two years.
- San Diego is always ranked as one of the top ranked tourist destinations in the US.
- By any measure mortgage rates continue to be low.
- The $8,000 first time homebuyer credit has been extended until April 30th 2010 but escrow must close by July 1st.
- In addition, a new tax credit of $6,500 will be available for buyers who have lived in their home consecutively for 5 of the past 8 years.
- New housing permits are way down and that is basically good for the resale market.
And significantly, many homebuyers are now looking at home ownership as an investment in the future, not just a way to make a buck on a quick resale.
Zip 92128 vs California
Let’s take a more detailed look at Rancho Bernardo, including Carmel Mountain and Sabre Springs, and consider how it compares with the housing market in all of California as portrayed in the Median Sales Price chart shown below. The graph shows the median selling price of single family homes in zip code 92128 from 2002 until October 31 of this year and for the State of California. The blue line represents 92128 and the red line represents all of California. The data used for 92128 was obtained from the San Diego Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service, i.e. the MLS. A few things are worth noting. First, for several years the price of homes in greater Rancho Bernardo increased at about the same rate as the rest of the state. But selling prices began to level off before the peak was hit in the state of California. Most significantly the prices did not fall as precipitously as they did in the rest of the state. We believe this indicates good stability in this area. And finally, note the clear beginning of a turn-around in 2009 for the 92128 zip code area. All areas and zip codes are different and therefore it is important to work with a knowledgeable Realtor familiar with an area such that he or she can give you reliable information. We look forward to a brighter year!
Related Posts: Area Statistics, Exclusive Properties, Market Trends, Rancho Bernardo, San Diego
